Odds of Caleb & Francis Having Success In “The Program”

Published April 29, 2020 · Updated July 6, 2022

Guys-

I love you all but the possibility of Caleb and Francis being friends and both being successful graduates of Serac’s program is NOT what I’d call unlikely-and certainly not to the point of going tinfoil over.

I’m not a mathematics professor but I don’t think this question calls for one, just a little multiplication: Caleb has a 1 in 10 chance, Francis has a 1 in 10 chance. 1 in 10 times 1 in 10 = a 1 in 100 chance of two friends both “passing” the program. Yes, 1/100 isn’t great odds, but how many pairs of soldiers came back together from the Russian Civil War? Thousands? If so that would mean that the chances of there being pairs of soldiers who both pass through the Serac system are not only not IMprobable, but highly probable. Almost certain, in fact.

As for the question of Caleb’s history, I’ve only watched the episode once but my initial take was that all of the in-uniform military history up through the blast was real-and all of the black-ops stuff in Crimea was replacement memory to cover Caleb’s and Francis’s work for the Rico app and explain away Francis’s death to Caleb.

Keep up the great work, you guys are a salve in these dark, dull (but honestly, mostly pleasant) times.

Best,
Karl

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